Favored Count: Double Zig-Zag from March 2009 low:
This count has all but disappeared from the radar of Elliott Wave Analysts, but I still think it is valid, for a very important, yet perhaps by this point in time, vastly overlooked factor by the Elliott Wave Community: The clear lack of a five wave impulse from March 2009-May 2011. Instead, the market traced out a Three-Wave advance from the March 2009 up into the February 2011 high, and a Three-Wave advance from the March 2011 low up into the May 2011 high. Simply put, if this were an A-B-C zigzag, the wave structure from March 2011-May 2011 should have been five waves, but instead consisted of only three, indicating the orthodox top of the first leg of the rally from March 2009 was February 2011, not May 2011. Rather, what this wave pattern indicates, is that the market traced out a simple 5-3-5- zigzag up into February 2011, and then traced out a 3-3-5 expanded flat correction, From February 2011- October 2011. Also supporting this conclusion is the clear 5 waves down from the May 2011 high to the October 2011 low. If it were wave B (Circle), it should have only been three waves, but instead was an impulsive five.This would fit in nicely with the three wave advance from March 2011-May 2011, as wave (B) of X (circle). Remaining objective, what is less than ideal about this count, is the disproportionately large wave (C) of Y (Circle) relative to wave (A) of Y (Circle). Assuming this is correct, and the advance from March 2011-May 2011 was in fact three waves and not five, the aforementioned evidence rules out a 5-3-5 zigzag from March 2009- December 2014.