Dow Jones Industrial Average Fibonacci Price Target

Fibonacci price relationships may be indicating an approaching top to the bull market in the Dow Jones Industrial Average.  The Industrials registered a closing high on February 9, 1966 of 995.15. The Industrials have demonstrated a series of Fibonacci numbers at important highs, the high of 1929 of 381.17 being notable as close to the Fibonacci number 377. At this point in September 2025, the Dow Jones Industrial Average, long considered the bellwether for U.S. Stock Prices, is approaching a Fibonacci multiple of the 1966 high. Being as the 1966 high was associated with the true Grand Supercycle top in real money (gold) terms, that high seems logical to project a Fibonacci Multiple with respect to a price target for the final high in nominal equity prices. The high today, September 23, 2025 was 46,714.27, whereas the Fibonacci price target based off of the 1966 high is 46,743.01. Given the gap up in prices and reversal today, the final nominal equity price high could well have been registered during today's session. If not, and this Fibonacci Relationship is to be of consequence, the final top should be imminent. 

SPX Symmetry Target

Equities have registered a new all-time high and as such, a revised count is warranted. Here I show a potential fifth wave extension, with wave (5) of 5 of V completing now, with symmetry targets met. Symmetry is but one tool technicians can utilize to anticipate tops. This could well mark the final top of the bull market. 

S&P500 Alternate Count and Deflationary Forecast

 The preponderance of the evidence certainly points to a final peak in equity prices. What follows should be the most severe deflationary stock market crash in U.S. History. The previous post outlined the mot likely count, that Cycle Wave V peaked February 2025 on the S&P500 stock index. While the market exceeded the price targets suggested by the ratios presented in that post, it only did so by less than 2.5%, a very brief overshoot of my price targets given the multi-decade bull market that is peaking now. 

Below I show an alternate count, that brings back the idea of the move from March 2009 being nothing but a large scale bear market rally, the position that was held on this blog since it's inception in 2009. However, given the scale of the rally, it would be reasonable to conclude this was Supercycle Wave (b). What would follow is Supercycle Wave (c) down that would complete the bear market. Supercycle Wave (c) would take the market well below the 2009 lows, and likely down to the 1974/1982 lows or lower.   

Supporting this count is the fact that the SPX Priced in real money, Gold, has been in a bear market since 2000, when stock market actually peaked. The rally since 2009 has been driven by Central Bank Liquidity and optimistic investors bidding up asset prices. Now that wave structure, and thus the trend in Social Mood, has shifted from up to down dramatically, nominal asset prices should reprice to reflect the Gold denominated price of equities, the true value of U.S. Corporations.     

Note that if this count is correct, wave (b) would equal a Fibonacci 6.18 times the length of wave (a). This is not a coincidence. It is the Golden Ratio, Nature's Mathematical Manifestation, at work.

SPX Long-Term Wave Symmetry

 The S&P 500 index is exhibiting potential wave Symmetry from the 1949 Supercycle (IV) low, between waves I and V of (V). A common Elliott Wave Guideline is that Wave V will travel an equal distance to Wave I. The market is potentially signaling the presence of this symmetrical dynamic in percentage terms. If a top were to occur today, 11/11/2024, it would imply a 2/3 duration of Wave V of (V) to Wave I of (V).

Also of note is the length of Wave V is equal to a Fibonacci 6.62 Multiple of Wave B of IV from October 2002-October 2007.

Final Bull Market Top

 It appears the Stock Market has completed the Grand Supercycle Bull Market. The prior bullish stance of this blog back in early 2022 proved correct as equity prices advanced to new all-time highs. The deflationary forces that have been building for decades should now take hold and result in the largest bear market in centuries. Ultimately, the March 2009 lows will be taken out, and likely the 1982 low. 

The Final Significant Correction of the Bull Market

It has been posited on this blog since early 2018 that the Bull Market would continue until 2022, simply utilizing the power of the Fibonacci Sequence in determining the likely duration. When equity prices continued past the 8-year mark, 13 was the next number of years in the sequence, and that year has arrived. I am not taking credit for this call yet, because 2022 has only just begun. With the extent and duration of stock market speculation, leverage, and historically high valuations, it would seem this should be it- the Grand Supercycle Bull Market, spanning more than two centuries, should top this year. It is now up to the market to prove this assertion correct. If this analysis really is correct and equities are beginning a multi-decade bear market, the bull market reversal and initial decline off the top should be unlike anything market observers have seen before. Records will be broken in downside breadth, gauges of fear and rate of change in the sheer swift nature of the initial bear market kickoff. In the meanwhile, the bull market is still ongoing and below I present an analysis of the current wave (4) correction.

Intermediate Wave (4) is now underway, in what is anticipated to be the final correction of significance in the Bull Market that began in March 2009. In Elliott Wave Analysis, there are a number of different structures corrections can take. Considering that wave (2) was a flat correction, wave (4) is likely to either be a triangle, zigzag or combination correction. A simple triangle appears to have been ruled out due to the new highs registered in January, and the subsequent decline below the December lows, ruling out a possible running triangle. It would appear the two most likely outcomes are another expanded flat, or a combination for wave (4). Given Elliott's guideline of alternation, and the fact that wave (2) was a flat, wave (4) should be a combination correction. Below is a double-three composed of a flat followed by a triangle. This would serve to frustrate the majority of market pundits as market direction will become unclear. When the correction is over, Wave (5), the final impulse wave of the Grand Supercycle Bull Market, would then commence and take equity values to new all-time highs.   

Elliott Outlined the tendency of impulse waves to form a channel connecting the ends of waves 1 and 3, running parallel to a line connecting the ends of waves 2 and 4. At the recent low on January 24, price briefly undercut the lower trendline, only to stage one of the biggest intraday upside reversals on record. The market clearly recognized this support zone. I would therefore be remiss if I ignored the possibility of the entire wave (4) correction completing at this low, or possibly a higher low in a truncated wave 5 of C of (4). Under this scenario, the market would test the lows, perhaps respecting the lower trendline before reversing upwards and impulsing straight to new highs in wave (5). 

Elliott Wave Bull Market Projection

 U.S. Equity prices have continued to remain strong, as the expected ongoing correction scenario posted in January did not materialize. The long term bull market, however, remains intact as expected into 2022.  Below is the favored Elliott Wave Count and projection for the remainder of the bull market. Although Intermediate Wave (2) was shallow, wave (4) is expected to be sharp to set the market up for the final top.

 

Long term price targets are derived from the previous bull markets of Cycle wave V of Supercycle Wave (III) and Cycle wave I of Supercycle Wave (V).