The Real Grand Supercycle Bear Market

 Many market observers and pundits have labeled the move from March 2009 a bull market, and say a generational low was registered. However, looking at the stock market in real-money terms, pricing the Dow Jones Industrial Average in Gold, tells a different story altogether. It reveals the obfuscation of the true value of U.S. corporations, which have made no net progress in a century. Robert Prechter. CEO of Elliott Wave International, has astutely pointed out, in his well-written piece viewed by Clicking Here that what appears to be growth in corporate net worth has been an illusion, as it has simply been a function of credit growth and resulting U.S. Dollar devaluation, rather than true corporate value growth. 

In Real Terms, the Grand Supercycle  Bear Market has been ongoing since July 1965, when the U.S went off a money standard, and on a FED Accounting Unit Standard instead. Many are familiar with the period of "stagflation" and sideways stock price fluctuation from 1966-1982. What some don't know is the stock market actually declined 96% from 1965-1980, measured in real-money terms. This certainly qualifies as a supercycle decline, and the fact that the Real-Money Dow Jones Industrial Average breached the 1932 low gives us as Elliott Wave Analysts confidence that the real-money bull market did in fact end in 1965. An Elliott Wave rule is that a Wave II cannot move below the low of the start of wave I. That happened here, telling us the Bull Market that began in 1932 ended in 1965, and was completely retraced by 1980. 

Additionally, looking at the move from 2009/2011, one can clearly see the stock market priced in real-money terms has retraced only 42% of the move down from 1999, a typical bear market rally retracement, peaking in 2018. It is only in nominal U.S. Dollar terms that the stock market has gone on to register new all-time highs. This suggests that rather than authentic corporate value growth, the rally has been liquidity fueled, which has had the effect of obfuscating the truth- The Grand Supercycle Bear Market is ongoing, and, as the chart below illustrates, is entering the deepest part of the bear market, Wave III of (c) down. The ultimate target is below 1.04, the 1980 low. This chart is for structure only, and not to scale, and the Real-Money Bear Market could last considerably longer than illustrated on this chart. 

There is a potential time symmetry relationship between the Dow/Gold Ratio and the Nominal Dow Jones Industrial Average. The Dow/Gold Ratio peaked in August 1999, and the Nominal DOW Peaked on October 2007. The rally in the Dow/Gold ratio off of the 2011 lows peaked in October 2018. From a time symmetry standpoint, the same duration of time between when the Dow/Gold Peaked and nominal prices peak is 8 years. Specifically, 2,968 calendar days. Should this timing hold, the nominal DOW would peak on November 16, 2026. But, given the completing Elliott Wave Structure in the Nominal stock averages, anytime in 2026 would satisfy this time symmetry. The final high in nominal equity prices appears to be imminent. And the market will probably register this top on good news, to fool the majority of investors, as it usually does. 

European Markets, and even Asian Markets, are exhibiting the same major divergence in Gold terms when compared to Nominal Prices.

All of these charts are telling the true story- Corporate net worth, around the world, when measured in honest money, Gold, is collapsing in a large degree bear market; a bear market that is not over. 

A Series of Fifth Wave Extensions

 The SPX appears to be tracing out a series of fifth wave extensions from the 2009 low. The final wave v of (5) of V, is by definition limited in it's length, as by Elliott Wave rules, wave 3 cannot be the shortest. This count appears to fit well with the ebullient sentiment environment that has caused the greatest degree of equity overvaluation in stock market history. Additionally, as illustrated below, the SPX has staged a throwover of the upper trendline going back to the 1930's, a classic ending move. A move back underneath the upper trendline should confirm the top is in. Coincidentally, today, April 17, 2026, represents a Fibonacci 6,765 days since the closing high on October 9, 2007. Also of note, there is potential time cycle symmetry form the 1974 low. 1974-2000 was 26 years in duration, and 2000-2026 is also 26 years in duration. The previous cycle would be 1948, which was only one year before the 1948 Supercycle Wave (IV) low in real-terms. A top in 2026 would balance out a pattern of low (1948)-low (1974)-high (2000)-high (2026). 

Under this count, the upper limit for prices to register a top would be SPX 8,339.55 on a closing basis. If this count is correct, the market should be tracing out the final waves of the Grand Supercycle Bull Market, and the reversal will be a record setting event. 

Dow Jones Industrial Average Fibonacci Price Target

Fibonacci price relationships may be indicating an approaching top to the bull market in the Dow Jones Industrial Average.  The Industrials registered a closing high on February 9, 1966 of 995.15. The Industrials have demonstrated a series of Fibonacci numbers at important highs, the high of 1929 of 381.17 being notable as close to the Fibonacci number 377. At this point in September 2025, the Dow Jones Industrial Average, long considered the bellwether for U.S. Stock Prices, is approaching a Fibonacci multiple of the 1966 high. Being as the 1966 high was associated with the true Grand Supercycle top in real money (gold) terms, that high seems logical to project a Fibonacci Multiple with respect to a price target for the final high in nominal equity prices. The high today, September 23, 2025 was 46,714.27, whereas the Fibonacci price target based off of the 1966 high is 46,743.01. Given the gap up in prices and reversal today, the final nominal equity price high could well have been registered during today's session. If not, and this Fibonacci Relationship is to be of consequence, the final top should be imminent. 

SPX Symmetry Target

Equities have registered a new all-time high and as such, a revised count is warranted. Here I show a potential fifth wave extension, with wave (5) of 5 of V completing now, with symmetry targets met. Symmetry is but one tool technicians can utilize to anticipate tops. This could well mark the final top of the bull market. 

S&P500 Alternate Count and Deflationary Forecast

 The preponderance of the evidence certainly points to a final peak in equity prices. What follows should be the most severe deflationary stock market crash in U.S. History. The previous post outlined the mot likely count, that Cycle Wave V peaked February 2025 on the S&P500 stock index. While the market exceeded the price targets suggested by the ratios presented in that post, it only did so by less than 2.5%, a very brief overshoot of my price targets given the multi-decade bull market that is peaking now. 

Below I show an alternate count, that brings back the idea of the move from March 2009 being nothing but a large scale bear market rally, the position that was held on this blog since it's inception in 2009. However, given the scale of the rally, it would be reasonable to conclude this was Supercycle Wave (b). What would follow is Supercycle Wave (c) down that would complete the bear market. Supercycle Wave (c) would take the market well below the 2009 lows, and likely down to the 1974/1982 lows or lower.   

Supporting this count is the fact that the SPX Priced in real money, Gold, has been in a bear market since 2000, when stock market actually peaked. The rally since 2009 has been driven by Central Bank Liquidity and optimistic investors bidding up asset prices. Now that wave structure, and thus the trend in Social Mood, has shifted from up to down dramatically, nominal asset prices should reprice to reflect the Gold denominated price of equities, the true value of U.S. Corporations.     

Note that if this count is correct, wave (b) would equal a Fibonacci 6.18 times the length of wave (a). This is not a coincidence. It is the Golden Ratio, Nature's Mathematical Manifestation, at work.

SPX Long-Term Wave Symmetry

 The S&P 500 index is exhibiting potential wave Symmetry from the 1949 Supercycle (IV) low, between waves I and V of (V). A common Elliott Wave Guideline is that Wave V will travel an equal distance to Wave I. The market is potentially signaling the presence of this symmetrical dynamic in percentage terms. If a top were to occur today, 11/11/2024, it would imply a 2/3 duration of Wave V of (V) to Wave I of (V).

Also of note is the length of Wave V is equal to a Fibonacci 6.62 Multiple of Wave B of IV from October 2002-October 2007.

Final Bull Market Top

 It appears the Stock Market has completed the Grand Supercycle Bull Market. The prior bullish stance of this blog back in early 2022 proved correct as equity prices advanced to new all-time highs. The deflationary forces that have been building for decades should now take hold and result in the largest bear market in centuries. Ultimately, the March 2009 lows will be taken out, and likely the 1982 low.