Monday, June 25, 2012

A look at the Crude Oil Market

Back in July 2008, with Crude Oil trading at an all-time high of $147 a barrel, everyone was calling for "peak oil" and a move to $200. This happened to be the end of the Crude Oil Bull Market from 1998, and probably dating back decades and even centuries. Well, instead of oil soaring to $200, it collapsed 78% in one of the biggest commodity busts of all time. It bottomed in 2009 at $33 a barrel. Since then, Crude has more than tripled in a wave B bear market rally. Crude topped over a year ago, at just under $115 a barrel. Of course, this got everyone in the peak oil camp excited again. But, it was just a bear market rally that is now over. Crude retraced 71.6% of its 2008 decline. That is more than enough for a bear market rally. Crude Oil has now entered the next leg of its bear market, wave C down. Granted, it is oversold in the short-term and due for a bounce...but Crude's long term downtrend remains in force.

Crude Oil Futures

Thursday, June 21, 2012

The Return of Deflation

I think it is officially safe to say deflation has returned and the 3+ year reflationary bear market rally is over. Oil and commodities are collapsing, the stock market has turned to the downside, after horrendous technical conditions and non-confirmation warning months in advance of this top, and all you hear from the pundits on television is "don't panic, this is not a time to sell". They will be saying that all the way down until the bear market low, just as they did from 2007-2009. Except this time, its wave C of the bear market, and should be stronger, last longer, and ultimately do much more damage. Neil Cavuto recently interviewed Bob Prechter again. Once again, another great conversation with excellent unconventional insight.