The Stock Market Appears to have just registered the Primary Wave 4 low. Below I present an alternate count that illustrates an Extension for Cycle Wave V from December 6, 1974 low of 577.60.
Supporting evidence for this count emanates from the fact that a channel encapsulates the important peaks of waves 1 and 3, and the lows of waves 2 and 4. This count is presented on an arithmetic scale, which is consistent with the calculations for price targets conducted on an arithmetic basis. While it is still favored that Primary Wave 4 is correcting the Primary Wave 3 advance from October 4, 2011 to February 12, 2020, this alternate count should be entertained. In any case, it appears the stock market has registered a major low, and new all-time highs should be achieved. On a closing basis, Primary Wave 5 would be equal in length to Primary Wave 1 at 33,519.42. Currently it appears this target will be achieved in 2022. The final wave of the bull market would throw over the upper channel line, before reversing into a true bear market. In 2020 there is widespread panic and fear, and it is quite obvious to the public why the stock market is declining and the world appears headed into a depression: The Coronavirus. This is indicative of a panic stock market crash, not a bonafide bear market. It is simply not how long term tops are achieved. In 1929, the bear market begun with a crash, but it was denied by many observers far and wide. Such is not the case in 2020. Most are afraid for what the future holds. Elliott Wave Analysis suggests a bullish outcome for the intermediate term.
The final bull market top, and for some time following, during the initial leg of the bear market, there will be denial by many that a bear market has begun, and there will be optimistic justifications for a continuation of the bull market. Until such time as the market does register it's final high, at the present time, the stock market appears to be in an extraordinary bullish position.
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