Dow Jones Industrial Average Fibonacci Price Target

Fibonacci price relationships may be indicating an approaching top to the bull market in the Dow Jones Industrial Average.  The Industrials registered a closing high on February 9, 1966 of 995.15. The Industrials have demonstrated a series of Fibonacci numbers at important highs, the high of 1929 of 381.17 being notable as close to the Fibonacci number 377. At this point in September 2025, the Dow Jones Industrial Average, long considered the bellwether for U.S. Stock Prices, is approaching a Fibonacci multiple of the 1966 high. Being as the 1966 high was associated with the true Grand Supercycle top in real money (gold) terms, that high seems logical to project a Fibonacci Multiple with respect to a price target for the final high in nominal equity prices. The high today, September 23, 2025 was 46,714.27, whereas the Fibonacci price target based off of the 1966 high is 46,743.01. Given the gap up in prices and reversal today, the final nominal equity price high could well have been registered during today's session. If not, and this Fibonacci Relationship is to be of consequence, the final top should be imminent. 

SPX Symmetry Target

Equities have registered a new all-time high and as such, a revised count is warranted. Here I show a potential fifth wave extension, with wave (5) of 5 of V completing now, with symmetry targets met. Symmetry is but one tool technicians can utilize to anticipate tops. This could well mark the final top of the bull market. 

S&P500 Alternate Count and Deflationary Forecast

 The preponderance of the evidence certainly points to a final peak in equity prices. What follows should be the most severe deflationary stock market crash in U.S. History. The previous post outlined the mot likely count, that Cycle Wave V peaked February 2025 on the S&P500 stock index. While the market exceeded the price targets suggested by the ratios presented in that post, it only did so by less than 2.5%, a very brief overshoot of my price targets given the multi-decade bull market that is peaking now. 

Below I show an alternate count, that brings back the idea of the move from March 2009 being nothing but a large scale bear market rally, the position that was held on this blog since it's inception in 2009. However, given the scale of the rally, it would be reasonable to conclude this was Supercycle Wave (b). What would follow is Supercycle Wave (c) down that would complete the bear market. Supercycle Wave (c) would take the market well below the 2009 lows, and likely down to the 1974/1982 lows or lower.   

Supporting this count is the fact that the SPX Priced in real money, Gold, has been in a bear market since 2000, when stock market actually peaked. The rally since 2009 has been driven by Central Bank Liquidity and optimistic investors bidding up asset prices. Now that wave structure, and thus the trend in Social Mood, has shifted from up to down dramatically, nominal asset prices should reprice to reflect the Gold denominated price of equities, the true value of U.S. Corporations.     

Note that if this count is correct, wave (b) would equal a Fibonacci 6.18 times the length of wave (a). This is not a coincidence. It is the Golden Ratio, Nature's Mathematical Manifestation, at work.