My Interview with Tim Wood

On Friday, August 10, 2012, I had the pleasure of being interviewed by Tim Wood, an excellent market technician whose focus is on cycles and Dow Theory. A link to the interview can be found below.

The interview can be found here.

A look at the Crude Oil Market

Back in July 2008, with Crude Oil trading at an all-time high of $147 a barrel, everyone was calling for "peak oil" and a move to $200. This happened to be the end of the Crude Oil Bull Market from 1998, and probably dating back decades and even centuries. Well, instead of oil soaring to $200, it collapsed 78% in one of the biggest commodity busts of all time. It bottomed in 2009 at $33 a barrel. Since then, Crude has more than tripled in a wave B bear market rally. Crude topped over a year ago, at just under $115 a barrel. Of course, this got everyone in the peak oil camp excited again. But, it was just a bear market rally that is now over. Crude retraced 71.6% of its 2008 decline. That is more than enough for a bear market rally. Crude Oil has now entered the next leg of its bear market, wave C down. Granted, it is oversold in the short-term and due for a bounce...but Crude's long term downtrend remains in force.

Crude Oil Futures

The Return of Deflation

I think it is officially safe to say deflation has returned and the 3+ year reflationary bear market rally is over. Oil and commodities are collapsing, the stock market has turned to the downside, after horrendous technical conditions and non-confirmation warning months in advance of this top, and all you hear from the pundits on television is "don't panic, this is not a time to sell". They will be saying that all the way down until the bear market low, just as they did from 2007-2009. Except this time, its wave C of the bear market, and should be stronger, last longer, and ultimately do much more damage. Neil Cavuto recently interviewed Bob Prechter again. Once again, another great conversation with excellent unconventional insight.

The true nature of the FED

               The Federal Reserve is NOT what most people believe it is.

A look at the long term Nasdaq 100 index

The Nasdaq 100 Index (NDX) has approached major long-term resistance. It fell just short of the 50% retracement of the 2000-2002 crash, at 2,805.80 and is backtesting a long-term trendline. After a 10-year bear market rally in this index, this seems poised to turn down in a big way. I posted about the parabola in Apple Inc. (AAPL), and as soon as this stock really gets going to the downside, the NDX should follow suit, as well as the general stock and commodity markets as the coming deflationary crash gets underway.

Jim Puplava Interviews Bob Prechter

Great Interview....

http://www.netcastdaily.com/broadcast/fsn2012-0322-1.mp3

Under the hood of the market....not a pretty picture

The market has now risen over 32% from its October 2011 low of SPX 1074.77 to an intraday high of SPX 1422.38. The Transports are diverging with the DOW. The Transports have not confirmed the DOW's rise above its May 2011 high. We have potential divergence setting up on a monthly basis. Volume has been declining since the rally began last October. In addition, the entire rise since March 2009 looks like a rising wedge, and we have a more pronounced rising wedge since October 2011. This bear market rally has now gone on for over three years, and it looks like its about to come to an abrupt end. The end of this cycle wave B Bear Market Rally and the return of the larger bear market that began in October 2007 should be imminent. Very few believe it is a bear market rally anymore. This is to be expected at the top of a cycle B wave.