Monday, June 21, 2010
A potential reversal in Gold
Gold Spot prices hit all time high on Monday, June 21, 2010, however Gold reversed intraday and by the of the day they were down 1.83% and closed at the low of the day at 1,232.60. Although sudden, these intraday reversals after making a multi-week, multi-month, multi-year or even all-time highs are quite common when the trend is changing. Another common element at a trend change is a fundamental story to fool investors into making the wrong decisions. In 2001 when the Bull Market in gold started, there was on fundamental reason to own Gold according to most people. People looked down upon it as a non-income producing investment, since it doesn't pay dividends. Among traders, there were only 5% bulls in gold in 2001. Now, with 95% of traders bullish, everybody loves Gold and will give a fundamental justification for why you should own it, just the same as they gave you a fundamental justification for why you shouldn't in 2001. Now, there are commercials for companies looking to "buy your gold", talking about how much the price of Gold has risen since 2001. Well my question is, why would you want to own it if it has already risen better than 5 fold since 2001? The extreme in optimism at gold's peak is normal, just like any other market. By the time Gold bottoms out, people will hate it again, remembering 2001 when there was "no reason" to own gold. I could easily be wrong about Gold, as it is a true store of value, but if the Dollar rises, which I think it will, that will hasten the decline in Gold. Although the fundamentals paint a picture for why you should own gold right now, the technicals are painting a more bearish picture, as illustrated in the attached charts, one being a daily chart and one being a weekly chart of Gold futures. Gold has completed (or is close to completing) a 5-wave Elliott Wave uptrend dating back to the beginning of its bull market in 2001. This move is impulsive and suggests that after an A-B-C correction, Gold will begin a new uptrend. However, in the mean time gold should have a fairly steep correction, perhaps retesting or breaking below its October 2008 low of 680.75. If this happens, I will view it as not only a buying opportunity for the short or intermediate term, but a long term investment opportunity. Gold is a true store of value and the only real money in the world.