Thursday, March 28, 2013

A Potential Symmetric Rally

March 28, 2013
12:13 P.M. EDT

This market has the potential to top in a manner symmetric in price to the last decline from 2000-2002 and rally from 2002-2007. Assuming the bear market started in 2000 (more on this potential new development in another post), the rally from March 2009 would top at 14,589.26 on the Dow Jones Industrial Average if the rally retraced 1.538 times the previous decline. However, because we are assuming the bear market started in 2000, we are taking the top from the orthodox top in 2000 rather than 2007.  The first expanded flat Primary wave B extended approximately 1.538 times the length of Primary wave A down from 2000-2002. Applying this relationship again in cycle degree (taking the move from the orthodox top at 11,750.28 to the cycle wave a bottom at 6469.95) now would give us a nominal DOW target  of 14,589.26. The reason I decided to post this is because the high as I am writing is 14,585.10. If in fact this relationship were to play out again, the entire rally from 2009 would top right now. I am by no means certain of this relationship, but given the fact that the market has basically met this relationship today, March 28, 2013, I thought I would present this possibility.

Update April 2, 2013 1:18 P.M. EDT:

Applying this same relationship to the S&P 500 Cash index, we arrive at a level of 1579.10. Although we have exceeded the ideal level on the Dow Jones Industrial Average, we will give it a bit of room as we await this uptrend from November 2012 to top. The S&P Cash index is currently trading at 1572.

1 comment:

  1. Chris,

    I believe you are dead on and that is precisely what will happen.

    Timing cycle models and lots of technicals support a top today. TODAY..

    Look-out below...!!!

    ps Few on the Planet think we are done..!! Which is always a good "reason"..