Monday, August 26, 2013

Recent Observations

I have been observing an unprecedented amount of ignorance, giddiness, complacency and downright arrogance with regard to the current position of the market. Market analysts who have maintained their long-term bearish outlook have lost credibility in the eyes of many. But, I can tell you, this "realization" by many that this is a new secular bull market and that the long-term bears were wrong is phony and a result of optimism induced by the extent of the reflation and subsequent rally in equities since March 2009. Those who cannot read through the lines and look at objective data and statistics are setting themselves up for financial disaster.

In particular, market technical analyst Tim Wood of Cycles News and Views, who graciously extends me air time, and works tirelessly doing objective research on the markets, has taken a lot of criticism recently from ignorant people who want to make themselves look smart by calling him and other bears out on the fact that equities are at a new all-time high. Tim has been called names such as a "broken clock". As Tim and I have pointed out, new highs in equities are NOT necessarily indicative of a new secular bull market. The same thing happened in 1973, during Primary wave D in Elliott Wave terms, of a 5 Primary wave (A-B-C-D-E) expanding triangle. Primary wave E down then ensued, to new lows for the bear market. At this particular juncture, it is again a bear market rally, this time Cycle Wave b, and the new all-time highs in nominal terms have convinced many that this is a new secular bull market. Tim and I are constantly shouting from the rooftops, hoping people will put their biases and preconceived notions aside for once and look at objective data. No, Tim Wood does not pay me to do these interviews with him, nor is he paying me to write this piece today. I am writing this because I am personally disgusted with the level of downright arrogance that has come upon many market participants, that take their own insecurity and project it onto someone else who has remained objective all along. Fact is, Tim Wood has said ever since the rally out of the 2009 low began, that yes, we are in a long-term secular bear market, but until we get the proper setup in place to cap the rally, it will continue. We have not once gotten the DNA Marker setup. In fact, Tim went out on a limb to call for a move above the May 2011 highs, after that vicious decline in  the summer/fall of 2011, when many turned extremely bearish. This call was simply based on statistics, and the fact that we had not gotten the proper DNA Markers in place to cap the rally. That's it! It really is not complicated and I highly recommend people resist the urge to listen to so called "analysts" that are just pushing the popular line, and subscribe to Tim Wood's letter to get a truly honest and objective picture of the market. We are warning there is a financial storm coming, and few are listening. I hope readers of this blog will take action before it's too late. We hope you are listening.

Tim Wood's research, as well as our audio interviews, can be found at

We will be starting regular audio interviews in September 2013 so stay tuned.