Dow Jones Industrial Average Fibonacci Multiple Regression

 In addition to the exciting Mathematical Multiples that are appearing at the present time on the SPX from the March 2009 low, the Dow Jones Industrial Average is exhibiting a regression in Fibonacci Multiple Relationships. 

Common Fibonacci Relationships are 38%, 50%, and  62%

As explained on the chart of the Dow Jones Industrial Average below, The relative relationship ratios between the 1932-1966 Bull Market and the 1982-2000 Bull Market, and the relationship between the 1982-2000 Bull Market and the 2000-2026 Bull Market is regressed by one Fibonacci Retracement Level. This calculation is using the 5/21/2026 closing high, and the DJIA Is making new highs as this goes to press, but due to the very long-term nature of these ratio relationships, we will allow for a slight upper margin here. This is truly a remarkable stock market juncture. 

UPDATE 9/10/2026- We have exact Time symmetry between the 1982-2000 bull market and the 2009-2026 bull market. From August 12, 1982-January 14, 2000 is 6,364 days. Adding that to the March 9, 2009 low yields August 11, 2026. The recent high in the Dow Jones Industrial Average was on August 13. Considering there are federal holidays now that didn't exist in the 1980's, the dates line up exactly. This is beautiful time symmetry and suggests the Grand Supercycle top was indeed registered on August 13, 2026. The most severe bear market in U.S. should now be underway. 

The Real Grand Supercycle Bear Market

 Many market observers and pundits have labeled the move from March 2009 a bull market, and say a generational low was registered. However, looking at the stock market in real-money terms, pricing the Dow Jones Industrial Average in Gold, tells a different story altogether. It reveals the obfuscation of the true value of U.S. corporations, which have made no net progress in a century. Robert Prechter. CEO of Elliott Wave International, has astutely pointed out, in his well-written piece viewed by Clicking Here that what appears to be growth in corporate net worth has been an illusion, as it has simply been a function of credit growth and resulting U.S. Dollar devaluation, rather than true corporate value growth. 

In Real Terms, the Grand Supercycle  Bear Market has been ongoing since July 1965, when the U.S went off a money standard, and on a FED Accounting Unit Standard instead. Many are familiar with the period of "stagflation" and sideways stock price fluctuation from 1966-1982. What some don't know is the stock market actually declined 96% from 1965-1980, measured in real-money terms. This certainly qualifies as a supercycle decline, and the fact that the Real-Money Dow Jones Industrial Average breached the 1932 low gives us as Elliott Wave Analysts confidence that the real-money bull market did in fact end in 1965. An Elliott Wave rule is that a Wave II cannot move below the low of the start of wave I. That happened here, telling us the Bull Market that began in 1932 ended in 1965, and was completely retraced by 1980. 

Additionally, looking at the move from 2009/2011, one can clearly see the stock market priced in real-money terms has retraced only 42% of the move down from 1999, a typical bear market rally retracement, peaking in 2018. It is only in nominal U.S. Dollar terms that the stock market has gone on to register new all-time highs. This suggests that rather than authentic corporate value growth, the rally has been liquidity fueled, which has had the effect of obfuscating the truth- The Grand Supercycle Bear Market is ongoing, and, as the chart below illustrates, is entering the deepest part of the bear market, Wave III of (c) down. The ultimate target is below 1.04, the 1980 low. This chart is for structure only, and not to scale, and the Real-Money Bear Market could last considerably longer than illustrated on this chart. 

There is a potential time symmetry relationship between the Dow/Gold Ratio and the Nominal Dow Jones Industrial Average. The Dow/Gold Ratio peaked in August 1999, and the Nominal DOW Peaked on October 2007. The rally in the Dow/Gold ratio off of the 2011 lows peaked in October 2018. From a time symmetry standpoint, the same duration of time between when the Dow/Gold Peaked and nominal prices peak is 8 years. Specifically, 2,968 calendar days. Should this timing hold, the nominal DOW would peak on November 16, 2026. But, given the completing Elliott Wave Structure in the Nominal stock averages, anytime in 2026 would satisfy this time symmetry. The final high in nominal equity prices appears to be imminent. And the market will probably register this top on good news, to fool the majority of investors, as it usually does. 

European Markets, and even Asian Markets, are exhibiting the same major divergence in Gold terms when compared to Nominal Prices.

All of these charts are telling the true story- Corporate net worth, around the world, when measured in honest money, Gold, is collapsing in a large degree bear market; a bear market that is not over. 

There is also a potential time symmetry relationship between the peak of Grand Supercycle wave I in 1720, and at least the absolute low, perhaps not the orthodox low, in Grand Supercycle wave IV in the Dow/Gold ratio. If we establish the peak of Grand Supercycle Wave III in 1965, as it appears to be, and Grand Supercycle Wave IV is tracing out a Flat Correction, then we may have a time target for the absolute low in the Dow/Gold ratio. The time between the peak in 1720 and 1965 is 245 years. If we then take that and add it to the bottom of Grand Supercycle Wave II in 1784, that yields a time target of 2029. If this timing is correct, it may mark the absolute low of Grand Supercycle Wave IV, with cycle wave V of Supercycle wave (c) terminating in 2050 with the next 34-year cycle low in a failed fifth wave. Or, alternatively, if Grand Supercycle Wave IV turns out to be a combination, with a flat and triangle, the bear market could end in 2084, the low of the following 34-year cycle low. The fact that fourth waves tend to last longer than second waves may imply the latter scenario, with the bear market lasting many years longer than it's corresponding Grand Supercycle Wave II. The exact timing of the end of the bear market is uncertain. Nevertheless, this scenario has extradorinary implications for the next few years, with an all-out collapse in stock values, both in real terms and nominal terms. Nominal stock prices would stage a 3-year collapse between now and 2029 in wave III of (c), very similiar to wave a of (IV) from 1929-1932. This does not require that Gold stage a parabolic rally. The top in Gold may well be in, and the financial markets and U.S. economy may well experience a terrific deflation, bringing Gold prices and nominal dollar denominated asset prices down together.

In keeping with Elliott Wave Guidelines for a flat correction, the Dow/Gold ratio should bottom at or below 1.04, the 1980 low. If Gold has topped, which appears to be the case, that implies the nominal Dow will collapse to around 4,000, at a minimum. This represents a 92% collapse from the peak. Needless to say, this implies the most severe bear market and financial disruption in United States History. 

A Series of Fifth Wave Extensions

 The SPX appears to be tracing out a series of fifth wave extensions from the 2009 low. The final wave v of (5) of V, is by definition limited in it's length, as by Elliott Wave rules, wave 3 cannot be the shortest. This count appears to fit well with the ebullient sentiment environment that has caused the greatest degree of equity overvaluation in stock market history. Additionally, as illustrated below, the SPX has staged a throwover of the upper trendline going back to the 1930's, a classic ending move. A move back underneath the upper trendline should confirm the top is in. Coincidentally, today, April 17, 2026, represents a Fibonacci 6,765 days since the closing high on October 9, 2007. Also of note, there is potential time cycle symmetry form the 1974 low. 1974-2000 was 26 years in duration, and 2000-2026 is also 26 years in duration. The previous cycle would be 1948, which was only one year before the 1948 Supercycle Wave (IV) low in real-terms. A top in 2026 would balance out a pattern of low (1948)-low (1974)-high (2000)-high (2026). 

Under this count, the upper limit for prices to register a top would be SPX 8,339.55 on a closing basis. If this count is correct, the market should be tracing out the final waves of the Grand Supercycle Bull Market, and the reversal will be a record setting event. 

UPDATE 5/19/2026: The SPX registered a closing high on May 14 of 7,501.24. This represents a Fibonacci Multiple from the March 2009 low of 676.53, with a 1.618^5 multiple off that low. The actual calculation works out to 7,502.04, within 0.01% of the May 14 closing high. This is a strong case for a significant top. 

Dow Jones Industrial Average Fibonacci Price Target

Fibonacci price relationships may be indicating an approaching top to the bull market in the Dow Jones Industrial Average.  The Industrials registered a closing high on February 9, 1966 of 995.15. The Industrials have demonstrated a series of Fibonacci numbers at important highs, the high of 1929 of 381.17 being notable as close to the Fibonacci number 377. At this point in September 2025, the Dow Jones Industrial Average, long considered the bellwether for U.S. Stock Prices, is approaching a Fibonacci multiple of the 1966 high. Being as the 1966 high was associated with the true Grand Supercycle top in real money (gold) terms, that high seems logical to project a Fibonacci Multiple with respect to a price target for the final high in nominal equity prices. The high today, September 23, 2025 was 46,714.27, whereas the Fibonacci price target based off of the 1966 high is 46,743.01. Given the gap up in prices and reversal today, the final nominal equity price high could well have been registered during today's session. If not, and this Fibonacci Relationship is to be of consequence, the final top should be imminent. 

SPX Symmetry Target

Equities have registered a new all-time high and as such, a revised count is warranted. Here I show a potential fifth wave extension, with wave (5) of 5 of V completing now, with symmetry targets met. Symmetry is but one tool technicians can utilize to anticipate tops. This could well mark the final top of the bull market. 

S&P500 Alternate Count and Deflationary Forecast

 The preponderance of the evidence certainly points to a final peak in equity prices. What follows should be the most severe deflationary stock market crash in U.S. History. The previous post outlined the mot likely count, that Cycle Wave V peaked February 2025 on the S&P500 stock index. While the market exceeded the price targets suggested by the ratios presented in that post, it only did so by less than 2.5%, a very brief overshoot of my price targets given the multi-decade bull market that is peaking now. 

Below I show an alternate count, that brings back the idea of the move from March 2009 being nothing but a large scale bear market rally, the position that was held on this blog since it's inception in 2009. However, given the scale of the rally, it would be reasonable to conclude this was Supercycle Wave (b). What would follow is Supercycle Wave (c) down that would complete the bear market. Supercycle Wave (c) would take the market well below the 2009 lows, and likely down to the 1974/1982 lows or lower.   

Supporting this count is the fact that the SPX Priced in real money, Gold, has been in a bear market since 2000, when stock market actually peaked. The rally since 2009 has been driven by Central Bank Liquidity and optimistic investors bidding up asset prices. Now that wave structure, and thus the trend in Social Mood, has shifted from up to down dramatically, nominal asset prices should reprice to reflect the Gold denominated price of equities, the true value of U.S. Corporations.     

Note that if this count is correct, wave (b) would equal a Fibonacci 6.18 times the length of wave (a). This is not a coincidence. It is the Golden Ratio, Nature's Mathematical Manifestation, at work.

SPX Long-Term Wave Symmetry

 The S&P 500 index is exhibiting potential wave Symmetry from the 1949 Supercycle (IV) low, between waves I and V of (V). A common Elliott Wave Guideline is that Wave V will travel an equal distance to Wave I. The market is potentially signaling the presence of this symmetrical dynamic in percentage terms. If a top were to occur today, 11/11/2024, it would imply a 2/3 duration of Wave V of (V) to Wave I of (V).

Also of note is the length of Wave V is equal to a Fibonacci 6.62 Multiple of Wave B of IV from October 2002-October 2007.

Final Bull Market Top

 It appears the Stock Market has completed the Grand Supercycle Bull Market. The prior bullish stance of this blog back in early 2022 proved correct as equity prices advanced to new all-time highs. The deflationary forces that have been building for decades should now take hold and result in the largest bear market in centuries. Ultimately, the March 2009 lows will be taken out, and likely the 1982 low. 

The Final Significant Correction of the Bull Market

It has been posited on this blog since early 2018 that the Bull Market would continue until 2022, simply utilizing the power of the Fibonacci Sequence in determining the likely duration. When equity prices continued past the 8-year mark, 13 was the next number of years in the sequence, and that year has arrived. I am not taking credit for this call yet, because 2022 has only just begun. With the extent and duration of stock market speculation, leverage, and historically high valuations, it would seem this should be it- the Grand Supercycle Bull Market, spanning more than two centuries, should top this year. It is now up to the market to prove this assertion correct. If this analysis really is correct and equities are beginning a multi-decade bear market, the bull market reversal and initial decline off the top should be unlike anything market observers have seen before. Records will be broken in downside breadth, gauges of fear and rate of change in the sheer swift nature of the initial bear market kickoff. In the meanwhile, the bull market is still ongoing and below I present an analysis of the current wave (4) correction.

Intermediate Wave (4) is now underway, in what is anticipated to be the final correction of significance in the Bull Market that began in March 2009. In Elliott Wave Analysis, there are a number of different structures corrections can take. Considering that wave (2) was a flat correction, wave (4) is likely to either be a triangle, zigzag or combination correction. A simple triangle appears to have been ruled out due to the new highs registered in January, and the subsequent decline below the December lows, ruling out a possible running triangle. It would appear the two most likely outcomes are another expanded flat, or a combination for wave (4). Given Elliott's guideline of alternation, and the fact that wave (2) was a flat, wave (4) should be a combination correction. Below is a double-three composed of a flat followed by a triangle. This would serve to frustrate the majority of market pundits as market direction will become unclear. When the correction is over, Wave (5), the final impulse wave of the Grand Supercycle Bull Market, would then commence and take equity values to new all-time highs.   

Elliott Outlined the tendency of impulse waves to form a channel connecting the ends of waves 1 and 3, running parallel to a line connecting the ends of waves 2 and 4. At the recent low on January 24, price briefly undercut the lower trendline, only to stage one of the biggest intraday upside reversals on record. The market clearly recognized this support zone. I would therefore be remiss if I ignored the possibility of the entire wave (4) correction completing at this low, or possibly a higher low in a truncated wave 5 of C of (4). Under this scenario, the market would test the lows, perhaps respecting the lower trendline before reversing upwards and impulsing straight to new highs in wave (5). 

Elliott Wave Bull Market Projection

 U.S. Equity prices have continued to remain strong, as the expected ongoing correction scenario posted in January did not materialize. The long term bull market, however, remains intact as expected into 2022.  Below is the favored Elliott Wave Count and projection for the remainder of the bull market. Although Intermediate Wave (2) was shallow, wave (4) is expected to be sharp to set the market up for the final top.

 

Long term price targets are derived from the previous bull markets of Cycle wave V of Supercycle Wave (III) and Cycle wave I of Supercycle Wave (V).

Crude Oil's Secular Bear Market

 Back in March 2020, amidst a crashing stock market and outright fear amongst speculators, the primary concern was deflationary pressures as the global economy went into recession. Oil prices went negative in April 2020, and many pundits were speculating oil would "never recover". While not published here, I was expecting a recovery in oil and that has now occurred. Now, all the talk is of inflation concerns. Just as occurred last spring the markets are once again poised to fool the greatest number, and reverse back into a deflationary trend. Below I present a long term Elliott Wave Picture in Crude Oil Prices. From the July 2008 Bull Market top, oil declined over 95% to a low in April 2020, and staged a throw-over of the lower trendline connecting the 2008 and 2016 lows. From that low oil has staged an impressive rally back to the 2018 wave (4) highs, as well as the 50% price retracement from the 2008-2020 decline, a common stopping point for price in Elliott Wave Analysis. Also of note is it has been a Fibonacci 13 years since the 2008 peak. It is fitting that the timing of the cycle wave V high and the cycle wave b high are separated by a Fibonacci number of years. 

Given my longer term deflationary thesis in equities and global markets, I do not see oil beginning a new secular bull market. It now appears oil has completed its bear market rally from the 2020 lows, and is apt to continue it's secular bear market. The above notwithstanding, oil could hold up relatively well until the anticipated peak in equities in 2022. Updates will be posted periodically.

A Potential Bear Market Fractal

It is anticipated the final peak for Supercycle Wave (V) and thus the Grand Supercycle Bull Market will occur in 2022. While it has long been widely held amongst Elliott Wave Practioners that Supercycle Cycle Wave (IV) ended in 1932, and a Cycle Wave I Bull Market occurred  from 1932-1937, I present an alternative in which the entire period from 1929-1949 was a barrier triangle. If correct, this interpretation would explain the failure of the bull market to top in 2000 or 2007, as that period from 2000-2009 would be labeled as an expanded flat correction for Cycle Wave IV, with Cycle Wave V, Supercycle Wave (V), and Grand Supercycle Wave III terminating in 2022.

The projected timing is derived from time ratios of the durations of wave a of (IV) relative to the durations of wave b-c-d-e of Supercycle Wave (IV) as a basis for determining the duration of ensuing waves (b), (c), (d), and (e) of Grand Supercycle Wave IV

Under this scenario, wave (a) would last a Fibonacci 8 years, wave (b) would last a Fibonacci 13 years, wave (c) would last a Fibonacci 13+1 years, wave (d) would last a Fibonacci 13-2 years, and wave (e) would last a Fibonacci 8+1 years. Even assuming a margin of plus or minus 2 years for Fibonacci Durations, the internal wave duration discrepancy from a Fibonacci number of years of the entire structure balances out. Finally, the entire Grand Supercycle bear market would last a Fibonacci 55 years from 2022-2077. 

An Ongoing Correction

Happy New Year. The Intermediate Wave (2) Correction that began on September 2, 2020, despite new all-time highs in the stock market, is still ongoing and has taken the form of an expanded flat. The lack of an impulsive wave structure from the October low supports this interpretation. 

All expectations are for the market to trace out 5 minute waves down into the intermediate wave (2) low sometime in the first quarter. Should the duration of Intermediate Wave (2) equal Intermediate wave (1), timing symmetry points to a low on February 15, 2021. Additionally, on a closing basis, wave c of (2) would be equal to 161.8% of wave a of (2) at 26,401.46. Previous price targets surrounded the 50% and 61.8% retracement range between 22,600- 22,800. While this is still feasible based on Elliott Wave guidelines, it is less likely due to the expanded flat structure of the correction. Nevertheless developments will be monitored closely. Minor wave c is apt to be sharp, in keeping with typical c waves of flat corrections. 

When Intermediate wave (2) completes, Intermediate wave (3) should carry the stock market to new all-time highs. As previously stated, a final top for the bull market is not expected until 2022. 

Intermediate Wave (2) Correction Underway

The Stock Market traced out an extended first wave into the end of April. This has had the effect of extending the entire Intermediate Wave (1) rally since the Primary wave 4 low on March 23, 2020. Intermediate Wave (2) is now due, and should retrace between 50% and 61.8% of the entire rally, as illustrated on the chart below. A 61.8% retracement would also line up with the previous minor wave 2 low, which is a feasible target given that minor wave 5 was relatively short in price. Hence, expect the Dow Jones Industrial Average to find support between 22,600 and 22,800 on a closing price basis. In terms of time, a 50% time retracement of Intermediate wave (1) up from March 23 falls on November 23, 2020.

Of note is the fact that minor wave 3 is shorter in price than minor wave 1, and minor wave 5 is shorter than minor wave 3. It is therefore reasonable to assume this will also be the case for Intermediate waves (3) and (5). This is consistent with the assertion that momentum will wane for quite some time into the final top of the bull market in 2022.

Precious Metals Update

 With all the bullish sentiment prevalent towards Gold and Silver and linear extrapolations out there. It appears to this analyst that both metals are topping out and continuing the bear market that began coincident with the peak in the rate of U.S. inflation in January 1980. Gold moving above the 2011 high was not expected, but it appears to be double topping with that high and staging a dramatic downward reversal into a continuation of the secular bear market that should, if my thesis is correct, draw prices below the 2001 lows at $256.60 and Silver Below the 2001 lows of $4.03. 

Potential Important Timing Symmetry

The Stock Market as measured by the Dow Jones Industrial Average has rallied over 37% from the    lows of Primary Wave 4 in March. Elliott Wave Analysis suggests the rally from the March 23 low at 18,591.93 should take the market to new all-time highs above the February 2020 high. The current rally should represent at a minimum, the first intermediate wave up of that Primary wave 5, and possibly only the first minor wave of Intermediate wave (1) of the final stages of a centuries long Grand Supercycle bull market. The above notwithstanding, on an intermediate term basis the stock market has completed 5 waves up and is thus due a 3 wave correction.

Potential timing for the low of the imminent corrective wave 2 may be demonstrated from the time symmetry of the cycle degree wave lows of 4/28/1942, and 12/6/1974. A total of 11,911 days elapsed between those two significant lows. The low of the upcoming correction will not be of similar degree as the cycle degree wave lows of 1942 and 1974, but more similar to that of 12/4/1987, a Primary degree wave low. The timing symmetry that is being illustrated does not precisely match wave degree lows, as the upcoming low is only of intermediate or even minor degree, but nevertheless this potential time symmetry is worth pointing out. Should the market recognize such timing, a low would be implied on 7/14/2020. 11,911 Days from 10/19/1987, the absolute closing low of the crash of 1987, is 5/29/2020, too soon to indicate a low. 11,911 days from 12/4/1987, the orthodox low of Primary Wave 4 of Cycle Wave III, is 7/14/2020. It is possible the market could recognize both sets of symmetry, where 5/29/2020 marks the high of wave 1, and 7/14/2020 marks the low of wave 2. The market will dictate the correct answer.

Stock Market Registers Primary Wave 4 Low

The Stock Market Appears to have just registered the Primary Wave 4 low. Below I present an alternate count that illustrates an Extension for Cycle Wave V from December 6, 1974 low of 577.60. 

Supporting evidence for this count emanates from the fact that a channel encapsulates the important peaks of waves 1 and 3, and the lows of waves 2 and 4. This count is presented on an arithmetic scale, which is consistent with the calculations for price targets conducted on an arithmetic basis. While it is still favored that Primary Wave 4 is correcting the Primary Wave 3 advance from October 4, 2011 to February 12, 2020, this alternate count should be entertained. In any case, it appears the stock market has registered a major low, and new all-time highs should be achieved. On a closing basis, Primary Wave 5 would be equal in length to Primary Wave 1 at 33,519.42. Currently it appears this target will be achieved in 2022. The final wave of the bull market would throw over the upper channel line, before reversing into a true bear market. In 2020 there is widespread panic and fear, and it is quite obvious to the public why the stock market is declining and the world appears headed into a depression: The Coronavirus. This is indicative of a panic stock market crash, not a bonafide bear market. It is simply not how long term tops are achieved. In 1929, the bear market begun with a crash, but it was denied by many observers far and wide. Such is not the case in 2020. Most are afraid for what the future holds. Elliott Wave Analysis suggests a bullish outcome for the intermediate term. 

 The final bull market top, and for some time following, during the initial leg of the bear market, there will be denial by many that a bear market has begun, and there will be optimistic justifications for a continuation of the bull market. Until such time as the market does register it's final high, at the present time, the stock market appears to be in an extraordinary bullish position. 

Taking an Elliott Wave Step Back

The stock market appears to be at or near the low of Primary Wave 4. It was foretasted on these pages in November 2019 that a sharp correction would occur for Primary Wave 4. That has now occurred, fulfilling the forecast, albeit later than projected. Nevertheless, the market is now in oversold territory and, it would appear, amidst all the calls in the mainstream media for the end of the bull market that began on this very day 11 years ago, set up to once again fool the majority of traders and reverse to the upside in Primary Wave 5, the final wave of the bull market. Even amidst all the fear over the Coronavirus of an imminent stock market decline and recession, the technicals are painting a different picture, as is to be expected at a low. It is the opinion of this analyst that capitulation has taken hold and a bullish reversal will commence shortly. Currently, the bull market should still be on track to end in 2022, but updates will be provided on these pages to track developments as they occur should the market dictate otherwise. 

Of particular note should be a pattern that, should this count be correct, have remained consistent in this bull market. Primary Wave 2 traced out a Zigzag, and Primary Wave 4 traced out a Zigzag as well. Intermediate wave (2) traced out an expanded flat, and Intermediate wave (4) did so, too. Should this pattern of lack of alternation by corrections of like degree hold, the market should be tracing out a zigzag for Primary wave 4, of which wave (C) appears to be terminating. The next move should be a thrust to new all-time highs in Primary wave 5, to last many months. Fear is dominant currently in the stock market. Undoubtedly by it's terminus this sentiment will be lopsided, and most investors will be bullish and projecting exponential growth in the stock market. That will indeed be a sign the bull market is in it's final stages and a bear market reversal is due.   

Gold to Resume Bear Market

With all the focus on the Coronavirus and today the sharp drop in equities, few are realizing the selling opportunity in Gold. Those who are watching Gold view it as a crisis hedge, which the market does perceive to be the case at times Regardless of any preconceived correlations. Evidence appears to suggest Gold is about to Resume it's bear market that began in 1980.

Most who are long term bearish on Gold assert the bear market began in September 2011 at $1,923.70. However, it is my observation that Gold in fact was not rising in a bull market from 2001-2011, but a three-wave, counter-trend bear market rally. In Elliott Wave Terms, a b-wave. If I am correct about that, wave c should consist of 5 waves, of which the first and second waves have just completed. Next should be the third wave down, which at a 1.618 relationship would take Gold to $270 per ounce. As hard as that is to believe, my Elliott Wave Analysis suggests that as a target for the next wave of the bear market, which could take a number of years. Wave 4 would then partially retrace the third wave decline, to be followed by a final fifth wave down to complete wave c and the bear market in totality.

Quick Stock Market Update

The Bull Market is in its tenth year, and still appears to be on track to match or exceed the longest bull market on record, from October 1987-January/March 2000. This would portend a final top in 2022. However, developments will be monitored closely should the market top sooner. In the interim, the market appears to have reached important resistance as evidenced by a trendline dating back to 1987. 

In the intermediate-term, the market has likely peaked or will with one more minor new high in Primary wave 3, with a sharp correction due for Primary wave 4, to be follow with one final wave up to end the Cycle Wave V bull market and likely mark a peak that will not be seen again for decades. More detailed analysis to follow soon.