Wednesday, September 11, 2013

Long-term Alternate Elliott Wave Count

Although I believe the balance of the evidence suggests the U.S. Stock Market has been in a bear market since 2000, and therefore 2000 was the orthodox top of the great bull market, as Elliott Wave Analysts, we must always entertain alternatives. That is, that the move down from 2007-2009 was only 3 waves instead of an impulsive 5. If this were the case, it would let 2002 mark the low of Primary Wave 4, and 2007 the end of Primary Wave 5, Cycle wave V and Supercycle wave (V). We would now have an expanded flat from 2007 taking shape, with 3 primary degree waves down from October 2007-March 2009, to complete cycle wave a and 3  primary waves up from 2009, culminating in a final top to this bear market rally, cycle wave b. We would then have 5 Primary waves down to complete cycle wave c and Supercycle Wave (a) of Grand Supercycle Wave IV.






A Possible Projection:



Just to reiterate, my Primary long-term Elliott Wave Count (Bull Market top in 2000):







Regardless of which count is correct, the Secular Bull Cycle that began at the 1982 low ended in 2000, no two ways about it. Additionally, 9 years is too short to end that secular cycle. Historically, they last 16-20 years, and given the stretched nature of the 4-year cycles since the 2002 low, I would not be surprised to see this secular cycle last into the early 2020's. The price low, what I believe is Supercycle wave (a), of the secular bear market, will likely arrive this decade, however the secular bear cycle itself will not end until a secondary low is made, similar to 1982.

2 comments:

  1. thank you for your comments. i enjoy them. thank you for the heads, up keep posting

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    1. Your welcome. Thank you for your comment.

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