Monday, September 23, 2013

Possible 2011 Fractal

We have a possible fractal pattern occurring in the stock market. 2011 saw a top in February, 3 waves down into March, 3 waves up into May, and then a five-wave impulse down to complete the expanded flat correction. We have may the same thing occurring this year, from May to whenever this move down completes. This is only a possibility, and could very well fit into a larger corrective count from 2009. At the bottom of this post I also show a possible Elliott Wave Count from the March 2009 lows, which would be a double zigzag, labeled W-X-Y, with wave X in 2011 being an expanded flat as I show below. This would be a better fit than my previous count of just Primary A-B-C in that it conforms better to the rules and guidelines of  the Elliott Wave Principle. Should this count be correct, it would imply a move down to complete minor wave 4 and then one more uptrend for minor wave 5 of intermediate wave (C) of Primary wave Y and cycle wave b of the supercycle wave (a) bear market.




                                       Elliott Wave Count from March 2009:



  1. Makes sense, but how does it fit into the large rising wedge, does the correction stop at the lower trend,one or break below it and then the wave 5 retests the undersurface? Also, I imagine we would get a Dow theory divergence at that time, with Indu or Djta not making a new high

    1. Hi gideon,

      Thanks for your comment. Elliott and Wedges are two different disciplines. That being said, I would think the current minor wave 4 correction would still fall in the confines of the rising wedge, but that is just speculation. What is most important is how the waves unfold (what form they take). Agree with the Dow theory divergence. We should see one set up in association with the top of this bear market rally.