Wednesday, February 15, 2012

A blowoff top in AAPL

Back in the late 1990's and early 2000's, when Steve Jobs, CEO of Apple, was brought back to the company after having been removed some years earlier, nobody believed in the company, and everybody knew why AAPL stock was not the thing to own. Of course in retrospect, it was a great buy. Well, now after Jobs turned the company around, everybody knows why AAPL IS the stock to own. As usual, the fundamentals are going to fool people into doing the wrong thing (buying Apple stock). AAPL has simply gone parabolic, and is in a fifth wave up from its 1997 low. As you can see, each rise (wave) slope has gotten steeper and steeper. This is not sustainable and AAPL is topping out on a long-term basis. Once the bear market in AAPL begins, as per the guidelines of  Elliott Wave Principle that state that support after a 5 wave advance lies at the 4th wave low,  my ultimate downside target for AAPL is AT LEAST the 2008 low at 78.20, and likely lower than that due to deflationary forces about to hit the markets. It is quite possible AAPL will do a "throwover" of the upper trendline of the wedge in a final burst up in a 5th wave of Primary wave 5, before reversing hard and heading back towards the fourth wave low.

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