Thursday, February 9, 2012

A classic Breakdown and Backtest of trendline resistance

In Technical Analysis, whenever support is broken, it is usually backtested. With all the hype of a "new bull market", from a technical point of view the entire rally from 2009 has served its purpose: to backtest long-term resistance. The market broke cleanly below this trendline in 2008 and is simply backtesting it. Isn't it hard to believe? Talk of a "new normal", and "double dip, no double dip" is all very, very wrong. This is the wrong mindset. We are in a slowly developing depression, that has been developing since 2000. We have been edging towards the end of the cliff, and are about to fall off it. A breach of the March 2009 lows should be in short order, once we get the proper cyclical setup as identified by Tim Wood.

Now notice the same chart up close on a daily timeframe, and how close the DOW is to its long-term resistance line:

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