Tuesday, February 21, 2012
DOW hits 13,000, Transports not confirming....and a financial freight train heading this way
The DOW crossed the all-important psychological barrier of 13,000 today. This is sure to get people even more bullish than they are now, which is already at euphoric levels. This juncture reminds me of mid-to late 2007, when the S&P 500 made a new all-time high, exceeding the peak of 2000 at 1553 by a mere 1.48 percent. Except this time, the market has not yet made a new all-time high and yet Bloomberg TV this afternoon features the headline "Hedge Fund managers gaga for Google." If that is not a contrarian indicator, I don't know what is. Meanwhile, we have a very important non-confirmation going on, and that is between the Dow Jones Industrial Average and the Dow Jones Transportation Average. Those familiar with Dow Theory understand that these non-confirmation, until and unless cured, are NOT to be taken lightly, and coupled with sentiment at optimistic extremes, and waning upside momentum, the top of the entire rally from March 2009 looks to be getting close. Also of note, Ralph Nelson Elliott, in his original writings, noted in "R.N. Elliott's Masterworks", projected the top of the Grand Supercycle Bull Market in 2012. Well, here we are in 2012 with the market still at extreme historical levels. This would allow the market to make another new all-time high before finally starting the big crash. But people should not be counting on that happening. When this market tops and turns down its going to catch a lot of people off guard. There is a freight train coming towards the financial system and it will stop for nothing. It is Imperative that people get out of the way before the train comes into town. And the more Ben and company meddle in the markets, the worse it is going to be. They have already thrown everything but the kitchen sink at the problem, and it has not solved ANYTHING. It has, however, helped to inflate these markets to unimaginable heights and the fallout from that will be MUCH worse than 2008. When this market tops out, it is going to get ugly fast. I am warning, Do not try to time the top, get out of dodge now and move to maximum safety. This means the safest possible cash equivalents in the safest possible institutions. This market is running on fumes and when the gas runs out its not going to be pretty.