Possible 2011 Fractal

We have a possible fractal pattern occurring in the stock market. 2011 saw a top in February, 3 waves down into March, 3 waves up into May, and then a five-wave impulse down to complete the expanded flat correction. We have may the same thing occurring this year, from May to whenever this move down completes. This is only a possibility, and could very well fit into a larger corrective count from 2009. At the bottom of this post I also show a possible Elliott Wave Count from the March 2009 lows, which would be a double zigzag, labeled W-X-Y, with wave X in 2011 being an expanded flat as I show below. This would be a better fit than my previous count of just Primary A-B-C in that it conforms better to the rules and guidelines of  the Elliott Wave Principle. Should this count be correct, it would imply a move down to complete minor wave 4 and then one more uptrend for minor wave 5 of intermediate wave (C) of Primary wave Y and cycle wave b of the supercycle wave (a) bear market.

                                           2011:

                                         2013:


                                 

                                       Elliott Wave Count from March 2009:


                                  

Greg Hunter interviews Karl Denninger

Excellent interview with Karl Denninger of www.market-ticker.org. I concur with everything Mr. Denninger has said here. Once we get the setup to cap this rally, it will really be a sight to behold.

                                                     

Max Keiser interviews Robert Prechter

Excellent interview between Max Keiser of the Keiser Report and Robert Prechter of Elliott Wave International on August 10, 2013. I hope readers of this blog are heeding these warnings. It is not too late to act to get safe.

September 13, 2013 Interview with Tim Wood

Summer is over, and volatility is likely to return in a big way as traders return from vacation. Volatility is also, in my opinion, likely to stay for the rest of this bear market rally, and take off to the upside in a big way when the bear market returns. The state of the markets is extremely dangerous, and I believe we are getting close to the top of this bear market rally, but we are not quite there yet. In this interview, we discuss the big picture with respect to the stock market and economy, and much more. I must also give credit to Bob Prechter and the folks at Elliott Wave International for their incredible insight that has allowed me to view the markets and economy from the perspective that I do.

                                                    Click Here to Listen

Long-term Alternate Elliott Wave Count

Although I believe the balance of the evidence suggests the U.S. Stock Market has been in a bear market since 2000, and therefore 2000 was the orthodox top of the great bull market, as Elliott Wave Analysts, we must always entertain alternatives. That is, that the move down from 2007-2009 was only 3 waves instead of an impulsive 5. If this were the case, it would let 2002 mark the low of Primary Wave 4, and 2007 the end of Primary Wave 5, Cycle wave V and Supercycle wave (V). We would now have an expanded flat from 2007 taking shape, with 3 primary degree waves down from October 2007-March 2009, to complete cycle wave a and 3  primary waves up from 2009, culminating in a final top to this bear market rally, cycle wave b. We would then have 5 Primary waves down to complete cycle wave c and Supercycle Wave (a) of Grand Supercycle Wave IV.

 

A Possible Projection:

Just to reiterate, my Primary long-term Elliott Wave Count (Bull Market top in 2000):

Regardless of which count is correct, the Secular Bull Cycle that began at the 1982 low ended in 2000, no two ways about it. Additionally, 9 years is too short to end that secular cycle. Historically, they last 16-20 years, and given the stretched nature of the 4-year cycles since the 2002 low, I would not be surprised to see this secular cycle last into the early 2020's. The price low, what I believe is Supercycle wave (a), of the secular bear market, will likely arrive this decade, however the secular bear cycle itself will not end until a secondary low is made, similar to 1982.

Tim Wood Interviews John Grant September 6, 2013

Excellent Interview with Tim Wood of Cycles News and Views and John Grant of Grant Financial Group on Friday, September 6, 2013.

                                                       Click Here to Listen

Recent Observations

I have been observing an unprecedented amount of ignorance, giddiness, complacency and downright arrogance with regard to the current position of the market. Market analysts who have maintained their long-term bearish outlook have lost credibility in the eyes of many. But, I can tell you, this "realization" by many that this is a new secular bull market and that the long-term bears were wrong is phony and a result of optimism induced by the extent of the reflation and subsequent rally in equities since March 2009. Those who cannot read through the lines and look at objective data and statistics are setting themselves up for financial disaster.

In particular, market technical analyst Tim Wood of Cycles News and Views, who graciously extends me air time, and works tirelessly doing objective research on the markets, has taken a lot of criticism recently from ignorant people who want to make themselves look smart by calling him and other bears out on the fact that equities are at a new all-time high. Tim has been called names such as a "broken clock". As Tim and I have pointed out, new highs in equities are NOT necessarily indicative of a new secular bull market. The same thing happened in 1973, during Primary wave D in Elliott Wave terms, of a 5 Primary wave (A-B-C-D-E) expanding triangle. Primary wave E down then ensued, to new lows for the bear market. At this particular juncture, it is again a bear market rally, this time Cycle Wave b, and the new all-time highs in nominal terms have convinced many that this is a new secular bull market. Tim and I are constantly shouting from the rooftops, hoping people will put their biases and preconceived notions aside for once and look at objective data. No, Tim Wood does not pay me to do these interviews with him, nor is he paying me to write this piece today. I am writing this because I am personally disgusted with the level of downright arrogance that has come upon many market participants, that take their own insecurity and project it onto someone else who has remained objective all along. Fact is, Tim Wood has said ever since the rally out of the 2009 low began, that yes, we are in a long-term secular bear market, but until we get the proper setup in place to cap the rally, it will continue. We have not once gotten the DNA Marker setup. In fact, Tim went out on a limb to call for a move above the May 2011 highs, after that vicious decline in  the summer/fall of 2011, when many turned extremely bearish. This call was simply based on statistics, and the fact that we had not gotten the proper DNA Markers in place to cap the rally. That's it! It really is not complicated and I highly recommend people resist the urge to listen to so called "analysts" that are just pushing the popular line, and subscribe to Tim Wood's letter to get a truly honest and objective picture of the market. We are warning there is a financial storm coming, and few are listening. I hope readers of this blog will take action before it's too late. We hope you are listening.

Tim Wood's research, as well as our audio interviews, can be found at www.cyclesman.net

We will be starting regular audio interviews in September 2013 so stay tuned.